Marc,
You overestimate my
satisfaction with last night’s results.
Obama did have a great night. Everything about how he won signals his
electablility in the generals this Fall.
Barack basically swept the caucus states. He trounced Hillary in the South and in the
West. He took it to her harder in New York than she hit him in Illinois.
The pattern was clear: wherever Obama mounted a campaign in the last two
weeks, Hillary’s double digit leads evaporated to single digit squeakers.
But I left my dancing shoes
in the closet last night. I am worried
about the judgment of the Democratic Party.
Marc, I think you underestimate the Republicans chances in November. I know it looks like they are eating
themselves alive right now, but don’t be deceived. The massive GOP coalition is just as fragile
as the New Deal coalition was for Democrats.
Southern, working class evangelicals, Wall Street bankers, and middle
American soccer moms are not natural allies any more than industrial laborers,
black urban dwellers, and Southern Dixiecrats
were. The GOP alliance is held together as much by what they revile on the left
as what they like right. I am convinced that there is only one candidate who
can hold together the GOP and deliver a Republican to the White House in
November: Hillary Clinton.
Hillary will motivate the
Evangelicals to leave their homes and head to the polls. If you don’t believe me, think about black
folks and John Kerry. He had little to
offer black communities in terms of substance or symbols, but African Americans
hated George W. Bush and they showed up for Kerry. In 2004 I stood in the rain for 14 hours in Columbus Ohio
and I assure you that a good enemy motivates every bit as much as a close
friend.
I am celebrating Barack’s
win and his obvious momentum, but I am sober about the outcomes in New York, New Jersey, California and Massachusetts.
Many voters in these bright blue states don’t get it. They seem unaware of the
Republican-base galvanizing power of a Clinton
ticket.
I know that power concedes
nothing without a struggle. This fight for the Party’s future and the nation’s
soul is still in the early skirmishes, and I don’t feel no ways tired.
Melissa
Melissa Harris-Lacewell is Associate Professor of
Politics and African
American Studies
Princeton University.